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Where do you see the intersection of AI and philosophy moving?
(Feel free to also share your favorite Saved by the Bell quote!)
- mahalo
U.S. economy adding 172,000 positions, more than double what forecasters expected and the third straight month of solid payroll gains. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. And yet, in the "this is why we can't have nice things" department, stocks sold off, in part, on concerns about the future direction of interest rates. Good news on hiring reads as bad news for rate cuts. It’s that ages-old conflict between Main Street and Wall Street.
Inflation is like the visitor who won’t leave the House. As we focus on the week ahead, we’ll be asking: Is inflation surging?
The answer will come in two reports. The Consumer Price Index is due on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index follows on Thursday, both from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The consensus among economists looks for headline CPI to rise 0.5% in May, lifting the annual rate to 4.2% from 3.8%, with energy and food doing much of the work. That would be a clear move in the wrong direction for consumers and for the Federal Reserve, which has a 2% inflation target.
Producer prices, a read on costs further up the supply chain and ultimately bound for the consumer, are seen rising 0.6% on the month, cooler than April's hot 1.4%, but still firm with the annual rate running near 6%. The more revealing number is beneath the headline: core CPI, which sets aside food and energy, is expected near 0.3% on the month, leaving the year-over-year increase at around 2.9%. The distance between a hot headline and a calmer core is one thing to watch. Of course, consumers don’t have the option of excluding food and energy from their budgets. It’s an economist and central banker thing.
Speaking of central bankers, the Fed begins its communications blackout June 6 through June 18, so this data lands with no central bank voice to frame it ahead of the June 17th announcement and news conference. No rate move is seen at the June meeting, but the risk of a future interest rate increase is building.
May Existing Home Sales is due Tuesday from the National Association of Realtors. The housing market is still held back by thin supply and elevated mortgage rates, holding roughly flat at 4 million in annualized sales of previously owned homes. The Bankrate average for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.51%
For households, the math is plain. With price gains reaccelerating and borrowing costs holding firm, the affordability squeeze of recent years has not let go.
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